Experts say possible El Niño return could worsen Portugal's extreme weather

The World Meteorological Organisation estimates an 80% chance of a new El Niño episode between June and August 2026, likely lasting at least until November. ZERO's president, Francisco Ferreira, says the phenomenon's effect on Portugal is only indirect, working through global atmospheric patterns rather than causing droughts or heatwaves directly. Still, he warns it should be treated as an additional climate risk factor, potentially intensifying heatwaves, drought, flash floods and wildfire risk already linked to global warming. One in three Portuguese parishes already faces high fire risk this summer regardless of El Niño. ZERO recommends strengthening water management, public health protection and territorial resilience.